After a tumultuous 2022, Bitcoin is now starting to wake up as it marches higher towards its' 200-day moving average. We have also seen some impressive action in Ether recently which is also an excellent sign. In late June, both of these cryptocurrencies were showing signs of bottoming, and it looked like the worst was behind us. Both were starting to heat up in late October until the FTX scandal occurred. While Ether held its' June low as the "crap hit the fan," Bitcoin undercut its' June low of $17,600.
It is my view that the period in November 2022 following the FTX collapse has most likely led to capitulation. As panic hit the market, anyone that wanted to get out of Bitcoin sold at this point, and those who continue to hold are the long-term holders, or "hodlers," who have basically decided to hold no matter what. What really excites me is how bearish sentiment is here. Just the thought of better times or Bitcoin one day trading above $100,000 sounds preposterous. Remember, market bottoms always occur when all the news is bad, and it's hard to think of worst news than the fraud that took place at FTX.
If the bottom is indeed in, it will most likely take months for Bitcoin to base before it makes a new high. This is what happened from 2018-2020, and I believe that is a good precedent for what may take place in 2023-2024. While I currently own Bitcoin and Ether, I am in no rush to plow in here. Instead, I plan to slowly add to my position throughout 2023 and 2024, as buy points at higher price levels develop. This allows me to slowly build a major position over time, rather than blindly trying to "bet the house" when I believe a major turning point has taken place. Regardless of how bullish I am, the two main tenants of my trading will always be to "risk right" and to "sit tight," as they protect me against massive losses and allow me to live to trade another day. Despite all the doom and gloom of 2022, Bitcoin and Ether will still be here in 2025, and risk management ensures that I will still be here as well.
Risk right. Sit tight.
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Bitcoin 2015-2023
Possible Bitcoin Action In 2023-2024
Full Disclosure: I currently own Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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